Russia's worst nightmare: Will Poland emerge as the next military power in Europe?

 (1) Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced the signing of an agreement to buy 486 launch and loading units for the high-mobility artillery missile systems known as "HIMARS" made by the American company "Lockheed Martin" in the first week of September this year. In 2025, deliveries will start. The fact that this is not the first agreement of this kind should be noted. Poland acquired 18 launchers in a $414 million agreement last May, and as part of that deal, also for "HIMARS," the country received the first batch.

A missile launcher called "HIMARS" that is placed on a five-ton truck has a reload time of only five minutes and can fire six precision-guided missiles in quick succession. The system can launch missiles, albeit its typical range is roughly 80 kilometers. tactical MGM-140 Atakhams with a 300 km maximum range.

The acquisition of the missile technology used by the "HIMARS" systems, which indicates a future intention to produce that system, is perhaps more significant than that, according to the Polish Ministry of Defense. This statement alone merits some thought, as "HIMARS" is regarded as one of the most sophisticated rocket artillery systems in the world.

It is enough to know, for example, that the Ukrainians have only possessed 18 pieces so far, and this number was effective in confronting the Russian attack in Donbas and contributed to forcing Moscow to withdraw from Kherson, and in just several months starting from June 2022, this system was able to strike more than From one hundred important Russian sites, it succeeded in disrupting Russian supply lines, and destroyed stores and artillery forces stationed about 50 kilometers behind the Russian lines (2).

Historic spending

But the above is just the tip of the iceberg. In November 2022, while the country was celebrating its independence from the Soviet Union, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: “The Polish army must be so strong that it does not have to fight because of that strength,” referring to a plan led by the country as it is written. These words to become the number one military power in all of Europe by the end of this decade.

The man behind Poland's ambitious plan had said at the start of this year that his nation would boost its military spending (4) to 4% of GDP, a move that some think is risky for the Polish economy and others think is vital, especially given... Polish economic growth has recently outpaced that of all other European nations, many of whom experienced severe crises following the war and the polio epidemic.

In addition, Poland's need for security on the Ukrainian border after the Russian invasion does not require much thought. The European and even global scene is changing in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and many countries such as Switzerland, Germany, Japan, and even New Zealand have changed their military doctrine to become... Overall, it is more motivated by an incoming enemy, and consequently more in need of developing its armed forces.

But Poland appears to be going deeper than that. The country spent the equivalent of 2.4% of GDP on the army in 2022, which in this situation was the third highest percentage among NATO countries, after Greece with 3.76%, and the United States with 3.47%. After this jump, Poland will undoubtedly be in the first place, and it will remain in this position for quite a while, especially since there is an intention among the Poles to increase military spending to 5% of the country’s GDP in the next decade.

The above is evident in Poland’s intention to purchase the most important and powerful military technical pieces ever and include them in its forces. For example, the country, along with “HIMARS”, will receive about 600-700 K9 Thunder batteries under an agreement announced in March. 2023 (5), a Korean-made 155 mm howitzer, provides superior firepower and range compared to other artillery systems and can fire various types of munitions, including high-explosive munitions and cluster munitions.

In addition, these guns are mounted on tracked chassis, allowing them to cross difficult terrain and maneuver effectively on the battlefield, with a maximum speed of up to 67 km/h, and with advanced technologies such as digital fire control systems, navigation aids, and communications systems, this piece has won The technology is widely accepted around the world, and has been exported to many countries due to its performance and reliability.

The matter does not stop at artillery only, as Poland has ordered 32 F-35A multi-role fighters under a $4.6 billion deal with the United States. Poland currently has 48 F-16 fighter aircraft, But the Polish Defense Minister said this September that the Polish Armed Forces need at least two additional squadrons of multi-role combat aircraft.

The Polish Air Force is expected to receive the first batch of F-35 fighters in 2024. Here, we are discussing a single-seat, single-engine, multi-role fifth-generation fighter that is capable of carrying out air superiority and attack missions in all kinds of weather. This fighter is regarded as one of the best in the world and has this range in addition to having the potential to engage in electronic warfare thanks to its promising intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.

The high degree of stealth and the precise technical ability to sense its surroundings and the pilot's commands with great accuracy and provide him with data about the aircraft's surroundings in real-time, along with advanced computing capabilities involving artificial intelligence mechanisms, are the two main advantages fifth-generation aircraft have over fourth-generation aircraft. The F-35A, of course, is a flying nightmare for both naval and land-based targets, and it is highly likely to win a fight over any of its fourth-generation colleagues.

In addition to the above, the aircraft is easily able to collect, integrate, and distribute more information than any fighter in history, which gives operators a decisive advantage over all opponents, especially since it can work collaboratively with any combat system without obstacles.

The strongest of all

On the ground, in June 2023, Poland received the first batch of Abrams tanks that it ordered from the United States (7), becoming the first European country to operate these vehicles. In July 2021, Poland announced the purchase of 250 Abrams tanks for $4.7 billion, and one year later, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Poland agreed to an additional purchase of 116 used Abrams tanks and accompanying equipment in a contract worth $1.4 billion. (In addition, the Poles already have 200 similar German Leopard tanks.)

M1 Abrams is now one of the heaviest tanks in service, weighing about 62 metric tons (the heaviness of the tank is a mark of distinction), and it is currently the main combat tank of the United States Army. The tank uses a smooth-bore Rheinmetall main gun. (Rheinmetall) with a caliber of 120 mm, carries more than 40 rounds for the main gun, and usually uses two main types of ammunition: armor-piercing rounds, and other multi-purpose rounds.

Abrams is equipped with advanced Chobham armor that provides strong defense against armor-piercing rounds and anti-tank weapons, giving it an advantage in ground battles. In addition, the fuel and ammunition tanks are in separate compartments to protect the crew from the risk of the tank's ammunition exploding if the tank is damaged.

In addition, the Polish Minister of Defense signed three contracts last August with the Polish state-owned weapons group to purchase 700 armored vehicles of various types, worth about $250 million (8). Armored vehicles are usually deployed with tanks on the ground to deal with Infantry neutralizing their anti-tank and armor-piercing missiles, and tanks penetrate gaps in enemy lines to support the entry of armor in the first place. All this and we did not talk about Poland’s announcement last March of its intention to obtain 1,400 locally manufactured “Borsuk” amphibious infantry fighting vehicles.

The aforementioned requires soldiers to be managed, and Poland has a plan for that as well. The nation plans to recruit approximately 150,000 additional soldiers over the next ten years, bringing the total number of soldiers in the Polish army (9) to 300,000 by 2035. The nation will be able to create 6 armored divisions, which are independent military formations that can engage in both offensive and defensive operations and are outfitted with a combination of Abrams tanks, the aforementioned armor, infantry, artillery, engineers, and other support units.

To support these teams, Poland intends to obtain 8 Patriot batteries (10) as part of a deal with the United States worth $15 billion announced in June 2023. It is the primary air and missile defense system for the US Army. It was initially designed as an anti-aircraft system, but the latest versions It is capable of engaging ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, loitering munitions (suicide drones), and even fighter aircraft.

One of the most cutting-edge American air defense systems is called Patriot. Its missiles travel at a maximum speed of 5,022 kilometers per hour and a maximum height of 24,200 meters. The radar array of the Patriot system also can detect and track targets precisely. The radar system has a 100-kilometer range. It can concurrently track up to 100 targets and provide guidance information for up to nine missiles.

Europe's next military giant?

For comparison, countries such as France and Germany only have two armored divisions, while Britain has only one, compared to 6 such divisions that Poland aspires to build, as we mentioned above. You will find that this difference is clear in all Polish equipment at all levels, and what we talked about in this report is just an example of some of the highlights in a torrent of Polish deals to modernize all army units with a total value exceeding $130 billion, and is expected to reach three times that number. It is happening so fast and amazing that you will only have to do a short search at any time for Polish news. He must come up with a military deal that took place during the few days preceding this date!

With all this hasty military development, the question remains: Are we facing Europe's new monster? Although Poland does not have much soft power in Europe, it is currently working, in addition to military development, to strengthen its existing alliances in addition to being a member of the European Union. For example, it represents the Visegrad Group, which is a cultural, political, and military alliance of four countries in Central Europe, namely the Czech Republic and Hungary. Poland and Slovakia, a great opportunities for the Poles to create a niche in the region.

As for the Three Seas Initiative, which is a forum that includes thirteen European Union countries extending along the north-south axis from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea and the Black Sea in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland views the Three Seas Initiative as a political organization and not just an economic forum and expects that A unified bloc of Central and Eastern European countries represents a promising deterrent against any attempts at Russian incursion (11).

All this and we have not yet talked about the only big elephant in the room, which is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which immediately heralded a major (12) geopolitical shift in Europe that shifted NATO’s center of gravity from France and Germany to countries like Poland and its neighbors in the Baltic region. The reality is that Polish moves to develop its military capabilities must have been mainly based on that point, and perhaps Poland was waiting for that moment!

Poland's plans to develop its army preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they accelerated and magnified because of it, undoubtedly to a record level, and the government strongly aspired to strengthen the country's military position at any cost despite all the criticism, and therefore what the Russian invasion did was that it, in one way or another, justified Everything Poland has done and will do in the future.

sources

1- Poland to buy 486 HIMARS launchers from Lockheed Martin

2- Ukraine: What are Himars missiles and are they changing the war?

3- Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland

4- Poland to ramp up defense budget to 4% of GDP

5- Polish Army Receives 12 Additional K9 Thunder Self-Propelled Howitzers

6- Once Inspired By F-35, Now Korean KF-21 Boramae ‘Challenges’ US Stealth Fighter For Polish Air Force Deal

7- Poland receives first Abrams tanks from US

8- Poland inks deals for armored vehicles

9- Poland said its army will soon be the strongest in Europe. But is that possible?

10- US approves $15 billion in Patriot and missile defense upgrades for Poland

11- Poland’s Perspective on the Three-Seas-Initiative

12- How Poland became the new ‘center of gravity’ in Europe

Source: Al Jazeera